Het einde van de dollar is nabij

Als Iran volgende week wordt plat gebombardeerd, zullen sommige handelaren, beleggers en vermogensbeheerders niet verbaasd zijn over de timing. Iran introduceert maandag 20 maart namelijk een nieuwe beurs waar olie niet in dollars maar in euro’s wordt afgerekend.

Update: Iraanse euro-oliebeurs mislukt

En daar zouden de Amerikanen helemaal niet op zitten te wachten. De euro is duurder dan de dollar, waardoor energie duurder kan worden in de VS. Eventuele tekorten in de VS kunnen niet meer worden opgelost door simpelweg dollars bij te drukken. Een dollar is net als elk ander bankbiljet welbeschouwd niet meer dan een bedrukt velletje papier waarin je kan geloven of niet. Vice-president Dick Cheney liet zich in verband met het gierend snel oplopende begrotingstekort van de VS al eens ontvallen: ‘tekorten maken niet uit’ (alinea 7).
Maar het zal zeker gaan uitmaken als de hoeksteen van de economie, olie, ineens in euro’s wordt verhandeld. De vraag naar dollars kan dramatisch dalen, waardoor het bedrukte papier snel in waarde daalt. De Amerikanen zullen om olie te kopen dan niet langer de drukpersen het werk kunnen laat doen, maar het daadwerkelijk helemaal op eigen kracht moeten verdienen.
De dag dat de dollar valt zou dus naderbij kunnen komen na maandag. Behalve Iran proberen meer landen het internationale betalingsverkeer over te laten schakelen op de euro, al was het alleen maar om de aandacht af te leiden van interne problemen en buitenlandse druk. Deze laatste dollar-euro switchbeweging begon min of meer met Syrië, en vindt nu ineens ook aanhang in de golfstaten, tot voor kort de vrienden van de VS in het Midden Oosten. Die zijn woedend over het afketsen van de overname door Dubai Ports World van overslagbedrijven van P&O in Amerikaanse havens.
Het zorgt toch voor enige paniek allemaal, zie bijvoorbeeld de hieronder geplakte nieuwsbrief A-letter van The Sovereign Society, vermogensbeheerders voor de happy few.

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Illustraties: Sebe Emmelot

Dear A-Letter Reader:
In two days, a broadside will be launched against the U.S. economy. The man holding the trigger is Iran’s newly-elected president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Over recent months, he has become the most dangerous man in the world. He’s also the greatest potential threat to your wealth in 2006…if not for many years to come.
In this letter you’ll learn four ways to protect the value of your hard-earned wealth from Iran’s attack on the American economy. You’ll also discover how one group of investors is taking advantage of growing geopolitical volatility and seeing 18% to 58% returns–in anywhere from a single day to six weeks…and longer term gains of as much as 794%!
But first, I have to tell you about the biggest threat of all from Iran…one that isn’t grabbing the headlines…
President Ahmadinejad knows exactly what 
weapon can hurt the United States the most, 
and it’s not the atomic bomb
The media has made a lot of noise about Ahmadinejad’s nuclear ambitions, probably with good reason. But they’ve said very little about his far more devious weapon of mass destruction–one that could plunge the American economy into chaos in less than two months.

It’s called a petro-euro.

The petro-euro is the biggest threat to your wealth since the last world war. In fact, some people think it could start the next one.
By the start of the Iranian New Year–March 20, 2006 on our calendar–Iran intends to open its own commodity market for oil and gas. This new bourse will be similar to markets in New York and London with one critical exception…
Trades will be conducted in euros, not dollars!
Why does this have oil-backed U.S. leaders like Dick Cheney contemplating a nuclear strike against Iran? Because Ahmadinejad’s economic ploy threatens the U.S. dollar’s monopoly in the global energy market.
Oil is traded in dollars on the New York and London exchanges, and oil-exporting countries deposit much of the proceeds–commonly called "petrodollars"–into western banks. That gives the U.S. a huge advantage when prices go up…it can simply print more paper dollars to pay for oil.
It’s also a big reason foreigners have been stockpiling dollars and dollar-denominated assets like Treasury bills. But once foreigners no longer have as big a need for dollars, they may stop buying our dollar-denominated debt.

Not only will we no longer be able to finance our runaway trade and budget deficits with printing presses, international demand for the greenback–and the buck’s value–will drop like a stone. Already, the central banks of China, Japan, Taiwan and Korea have announced intentions to lighten up on their U.S. dollar holdings in their currency reserves.
And the moment oil becomes denominated in a different currency, such as the euro, the U.S. becomes like every other country in the world. We would have to earn euros in order to pay for energy instead of simply printing more dollars…not a happy prospect when you consider that the dollar has plunged 27% against the euro in the last 4 years.
Here’s just a taste of the implications–and opportunities–this new energy economy could create:
-1. Soaring gasoline prices, driven by an ever-widening gap between the euro and the dollar
-1. A spectacular rise in gold as investors flee the dollar…it’s already projected to go to $600 an ounce or more this year…perhaps even $800 an ounce if Iran implodes. Some analysts even speculate that oil will be denominated in gold, not euros, by the end of the decade!
-1. More expensive goods and services as the dollar’s value declines, higher energy costs create a de facto "consumption tax" on everything that must be transported or manufactured
-1. Less American influence over global oil, plus more competition as OPEC forms new alliances with developing nations like India, Pakistan, and China
America’s rivals have been trying to shift the oil economy toward the euro for years. They hope that if enough major oil producers switch, the rest will flee the dollar like rats leaping off a sinking ship, weakening the U.S. role in global oil and gas markets in the process.
A major shift in the global energy economy is now underway. And if you think a military attack on Iran will automatically solve the problem, think again…
Why a U.S. attack on Iran won’t save the dollar
President Ahmadinejad is far more threatening than Saddam Hussein ever was. The U.S. Department of Energy puts Iraq’s sustainable production capacity at no higher than 2.9 million barrels per day. Yet, Iran produces 4.1 million barrels per day.
Overall, Iran is now the fourth-largest oil-exporting nation in the world. It also holds 25% of the world’s natural gas reserves.
The U.S. doesn’t buy any of this oil, but many other nations do–to the tune of 2.6 million barrels per day. That means we can’t bully Iran as easily as we could Iraq.
It’s a Catch 22. The threat of nuclear weapons in Iran is real this time. Yet an embargo or a military attack against Iran could leave key U.S. allies and trading partners facing an even greater energy crisis.
On January 31, 2006, The Financial Times put it this way…
"Iran is OPEC’s 2nd largest oil producer. A halt in its oil production would send international oil prices to more than $100 a barrel, analysts predict."
Any disruption of the Iranian oil supply would create critical shortages worldwide. Countries that depend on Iranian oil will have to look elsewhere…creating more competition with the U.S. and sending prices skyrocketing.

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Lees ook:Iraanse euro-oliebeurs mislukt